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The Baltimore Ravens are the current No. 1 seed in the AFC with a conference-leading 10-3 record.
But with four games left on the docket, their hold on the conference could slip if they don’t continue to win games.
Baltimore plays the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday night football – a game that will greatly affect the Ravens’ probability of holding onto the No. 1 seed.
A win would push the Ravens’ chances to take the seed to 69 percent, while a loss would drop the chances to 31 percent, according to ESPN’s Jamison Hensley.
#Ravens currently have a projected 55% chance to capture the No. 1 seed in AFC, per ESPN Analytics.
How important is Sunday night’s game in Jacksonville?
If Ravens win, their chances to get the No. 1 seed improve to 69%.
If Ravens lose, their chances drop to 31%.
(h/t @EpKap)
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) December 17, 2023
A different playoff probability machine has slightly different odds depending on the outcome of the game.
The New York Times gives the Ravens a 77 percent chance to take the No. 1 seed with a win and a 41 percent probability if they lose.
Baltimore has been on a hot streak recently – especially on offense.
The Ravens have won three consecutive games and averaged 30.3 points per game during that span.
On the season, the offense ranks fourth in scoring and second in defense and Lamar Jackson is quietly putting together his best season since his MVP year in 2019.
The Jaguars offer a big obstacle, though, considering their high-octane offense with Trevor Lawrence under center.
The Ravens then play the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins in Weeks 16 and 17 – two teams also in play for the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences.
Baltimore finishes the year against the Pittsburgh Steelers – a winnable game on paper but always a tough matchup considering the rivalry and history between the two sides.
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