(Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)
The start of the 2023 MLB season has been both shocking and exciting.
The New York Yankees, the Seattle Mariners, the Cleveland Guardians, the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Diego Padres have been mediocre; and the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Baltimore Orioles, the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Texas Rangers have all been fairly competitive.
It’s still early and we should expect some regression on some of those squads.
However, others are here to stay.
The Atlanta Braves, on the other hand, never left.
They won the 2021 World Series and took the NL East division last year.
In fact, when it comes to making the playoffs, there might not be a more consistent team in the National League.
The Braves have an ongoing five-season streak making it into October, and logic indicates they will be there again in 2023.
The regular season is barely a month old, yet the Braves are the most likely team to make the postseason according to FanGraphs.
Playoff chances right now (via FanGraphs):
97% ATL
95% TB
85% TOR
80% MIN HOU
77% SD
74% LAD
72% NYM
68% NYY
67% MIL
53% TEX
51% PHI
35% BAL
34% LAA
32% PIT SF
29% STL
28% CLE
25% MIA
24% ARI
21% CHC
20% BOS
16% SEA
4% CWS
1% DET CIN
~0% KC WSH
0% OAK COL
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) May 1, 2023
The Braves are 18-9 to open the year and have a three-game advantage over the New York Mets and Miami Marlins.
The Tampa Bay Rays might have a better record, but they also have tougher opposition in the AL East with the remaining four teams playing above .500.
The Rays’ 95% odds are tops in the junior circuit and second overall behind the Braves.
The Toronto Blue Jays appear in third place, at 85%.
The Yankees, last in the AL East as of Monday afternoon, have a 68% chance of qualifying, while the Mariners’ 16% is shockingly low.
Still, each team has five months to turn around its fate, for better or worse.
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